Will Ana Brnabić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 100¢ · $9K held · ends Oct 25

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$9.1K

Combined PnL

-$19.75

Smart Money Entry

99.7¢ → 99.7¢

+0% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$9.1K

Total Shares9,087

Combined PnL+$5.86

Yes2 traders

Total Value$17.32

Total Shares466

Combined PnL-$25.62

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BI Bigggggggg	Noavg 99.7¢	$7.6K	$7.6K	+$0.94	48% 2069-2214 (4283)
balthazar	Noavg 99.4¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$4.58	64% 12621-7155 (19776)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 99¢	$74.4	$33.74	+$0.34	56% 9207-7359 (16566)
AJ AJSVCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.9¢	$28.76	$17.08	-$11.68	36% 12921-22626 (35547)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Yesavg 14.5¢	$14.18	$0.24	-$13.94	33% 2416-4926 (7342)

Bigggggggg

Invested

$7,633.45

Value

$7.6K

PnL

+$0.94

Record

48%

2069-2214 (4283)

balthazar

Invested

$1,391.37

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$4.58

Record

64%

12621-7155 (19776)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$74.4

Value

$33.74

PnL

+$0.34

Record

56%

9207-7359 (16566)

AJSVCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$28.76

Value

$17.08

PnL

-$11.68

Record

36%

12921-22626 (35547)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.18

Value

$0.24

PnL

-$13.94

Record

33%

2416-4926 (7342)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.