Will Alvin Tedjo win the 2026 Mississauga mayoral election?
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 65¢ · $755 held · ends Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 33%
$755.05
-$194.01
85.9¢ → 65.3¢
-24% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 65%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL plumbis | Noavg 88.5¢ | $254.52 | $240.17 | -$14.34 | 61% 45-29 (74) |
 mrworldwideCTR | Yesavg 14.1¢ | $86.28 | $144.2 | +$13.53 | 67% 702-340 (1042) |
AJ AJSV | Noavg 81.5¢ | $532.86 | $128.75 | -$173.43 | 36% 13604-23855 (37459) |
 seal7CTR | Yesavg 18.4¢ | $118.9 | $117.24 | -$13.6 | 48% 269-291 (560) |
 RelaccsedCTR<$100 | Yesavg 26.7¢ | $99.53 | $95.12 | -$4.42 | 56% 1156-916 (2072) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100 | Yesavg 27¢ | $31.32 | $29.58 | -$1.74 | 54% 4556-3891 (8447) |
Invested
$254.52
Value
$240.17
PnL
-$14.34
Record
61%
45-29 (74)
mrworldwideCTRInvested
$86.28
Value
$144.2
PnL
+$13.53
Record
67%
702-340 (1042)
Invested
$532.86
Value
$128.75
PnL
-$173.43
Record
36%
13604-23855 (37459)
seal7CTRInvested
$118.9
Value
$117.24
PnL
-$13.6
Record
48%
269-291 (560)
RelaccsedCTR<$100Invested
$99.53
Value
$95.12
PnL
-$4.42
Record
56%
1156-916 (2072)
Invested
$31.32
Value
$29.58
PnL
-$1.74
Record
54%
4556-3891 (8447)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
65.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.