Will Alison Jarman win the next Devonport mayoral election?

1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (25%) · Yes at 76¢ · $918 held · ends Oct 28

Yes76¢No24¢Ends Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 25%

Total Value

$918.2

Combined PnL

$2.3

Research grade

NeutralYes at 76%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 4 top traders (25%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes76%

No24%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes1 trader

Total Value$532.03

Total Shares858

Combined PnL+$183.69

No3 traders

Total Value$386.16

Total Shares1,609

Combined PnL-$181.39

Yes — 25%No — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
paddaa	Yesavg 64.1¢	$348.34	$532.03	+$183.69	57% 797-607 (1404)
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR	Noavg 33.6¢	$376.74	$261.89	-$213.89	52% 1004-922 (1926)
NadmiCTR	Noavg 7¢	$35	$120	+$32.5	48% 2009-2198 (4207)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Noavg 24¢	$4.27	$4.27	+$0	54% 4556-3891 (8447)

paddaa

Yes

Invested

$348.34

Value

$532.03

PnL

+$183.69

Record

57%

797-607 (1404)

SnapElectionAvoiderCTR

Invested

$376.74

Value

$261.89

PnL

-$213.89

Record

52%

1004-922 (1926)

NadmiCTR

Invested

$35

Value

$120

PnL

+$32.5

Record

48%

2009-2198 (4207)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Invested

$4.27

Value

$4.27

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

4556-3891 (8447)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 76%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 4 top traders (25%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance77.7%

76.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$28.69

Max Loss

-$100.00

128.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.