Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (94%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 6.5¢ · $235 held · ends Oct 31
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 80%
$235.09
$-1.0K
46.9¢ → 6.5¢
-86% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 7%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 94%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Late
532h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
11 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 scottxia1988CTR | Yesavg 47.8¢ | $1.1K | $161 | -$937.46 | 79% 174-47 (221) |
0X 0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438<$100 | Noavg 76.1¢ | $48.78 | $51.9 | +$3.12 | 53% 255-225 (480) |
 Contentious-DinnerdateCTR<$100 | Yesavg 35¢ | $74.91 | $14.98 | -$59.93 | 50% 380-380 (760) |
MA mamboNB5CTR<$100 | Yesavg 51¢ | $31.62 | $4.34 | -$27.28 | 64% 204-114 (318) |
 viniiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 57¢ | $23.37 | $2.87 | -$20.5 | 74% 2566-917 (3483) |
scottxia1988CTRInvested
$1,098.46
Value
$161
PnL
-$937.46
Record
79%
174-47 (221)
Invested
$48.78
Value
$51.9
PnL
+$3.12
Record
53%
255-225 (480)
Contentious-DinnerdateCTR<$100Invested
$74.91
Value
$14.98
PnL
-$59.93
Record
50%
380-380 (760)
Invested
$31.62
Value
$4.34
PnL
-$27.28
Record
64%
204-114 (318)
viniiCTR<$100Invested
$23.37
Value
$2.87
PnL
-$20.5
Record
74%
2566-917 (3483)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
6.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.