Will Ali Khamenei be the #1 searched passing on Google in the US this year?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 95¢ · $679 held · ends Apr 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$679.03
$81.26
87.2¢ → 95.3¢
+9% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 95%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 83%
Freshness
Late
567h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnapElectionAvoider | No | $310.64 | $310.64 | +$59.43 | 52% 993-912 (1905) |
 wish- | No | $251.03 | $251.03 | +$2.94 | 78% 1120-308 (1428) |
HE HerrieDavis<$100 | Noavg 85¢ | $64.22 | $72.05 | +$7.82 | 37% 1908-3254 (5162) |
 PaddyAlpha<$100 | Noavg 94.8¢ | $38.33 | $38.53 | +$0.22 | 60% 968-644 (1612) |
 Dragontree | Noavg 67.5¢ | $2.6K | $6.79 | +$10.84 | 58% 1214-862 (2076) |
Invested
$310.64
Value
$310.64
PnL
+$59.43
Record
52%
993-912 (1905)
wish-Invested
$251.03
Value
$251.03
PnL
+$2.94
Record
78%
1120-308 (1428)
Invested
$64.22
Value
$72.05
PnL
+$7.82
Record
37%
1908-3254 (5162)
PaddyAlpha<$100Invested
$38.33
Value
$38.53
PnL
+$0.22
Record
60%
968-644 (1612)
DragontreeInvested
$2,632.83
Value
$6.79
PnL
+$10.84
Record
58%
1214-862 (2076)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.