Will Alex Nuttall win the 2026 Barrie mayoral election?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 94¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 80%
$3.3K
$367.87
85.3¢ → 93.5¢
+10% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 94%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 81%
Freshness
Late
561h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 mrworldwide | Yesavg 86¢ | $252.84 | $1.6K | +$123.65 | 67% 697-338 (1035) |
SN SnapElectionAvoider | Yesavg 83.9¢ | $475.19 | $1.0K | +$236.49 | 52% 988-911 (1899) |
 archaic | Yesavg 87.3¢ | $130.29 | $431.99 | +$21.15 | 84% 1813-333 (2146) |
 paddaa | Yesavg 82.6¢ | $147.37 | $166.64 | +$19.27 | 57% 795-604 (1399) |
AJ AJSVCTR<$100 | Noavg 11.4¢ | $69.14 | $36.45 | -$32.69 | 36% 12963-22716 (35679) |
mrworldwideInvested
$252.84
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$123.65
Record
67%
697-338 (1035)
Invested
$475.19
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$236.49
Record
52%
988-911 (1899)
archaicInvested
$130.29
Value
$431.99
PnL
+$21.15
Record
84%
1813-333 (2146)
paddaaInvested
$147.37
Value
$166.64
PnL
+$19.27
Record
57%
795-604 (1399)
Invested
$69.14
Value
$36.45
PnL
-$32.69
Record
36%
12963-22716 (35679)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
93.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.