Will Alberta join the US?
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 98¢ · $4K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 100%
$3.7K
$122.67
95.7¢ → 97.8¢
+2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 allenzzz | Noavg 95¢ | $2.2K | $2.2K | +$91.55 | 77% 122-36 (158) |
 ROBBATTISTAFANDUELRETARD | Noavg 96.9¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | +$30.25 | 52% 1805-1659 (3464) |
 95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04<$100 | Noavg 95.8¢ | $26.2 | $26.75 | +$0.87 | 88% 2182-291 (2473) |
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.