Will Alabama use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 73¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 40%
$2.5K
-$340.32
83.1¢ → 73¢
-12% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 73%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-27 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
569h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 nicoco89 | Yesavg 82.2¢ | $65.79 | $1.6K | -$420.44 | 65% 1070-574 (1644) |
AJ AJSVCTR | Noavg 33.6¢ | $235.81 | $308.35 | +$72.54 | 36% 13446-23443 (36889) |
 FrozenParasiteCTR | No | $232.14 | $232.14 | +$91.43 | 53% 356-310 (666) |
 fireponbabylonCTR | Noavg 32¢ | $32 | $194.26 | -$33.6 | 44% 364-463 (827) |
EL Elias.Thornwell | Yesavg 90.2¢ | $50.86 | $177.14 | -$50.26 | 80% 10366-2645 (13011) |
nicoco89Invested
$65.79
Value
$1.6K
PnL
-$420.44
Record
65%
1070-574 (1644)
Invested
$235.81
Value
$308.35
PnL
+$72.54
Record
36%
13446-23443 (36889)
FrozenParasiteCTRInvested
$232.14
Value
$232.14
PnL
+$91.43
Record
53%
356-310 (666)
fireponbabylonCTRInvested
$32
Value
$194.26
PnL
-$33.6
Record
44%
364-463 (827)
Invested
$50.86
Value
$177.14
PnL
-$50.26
Record
80%
10366-2645 (13011)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
73.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.