Will Alabama Crimson Tide win the 2027 CFP National Championship?

1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (25%) · No at 95¢ · $1K held · ends Jan 26, 2027

Yes5¢No95¢Ends Tue, Jan 26, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 25%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

$483.16

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 4 top traders (25%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes5%

No95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$611.89

Total Shares12,616

Combined PnL+$482.56

No1 trader

Total Value$474.75

Total Shares500

Combined PnL+$0.6

Yes — 75%No — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MI milkteabobaCTR	Yesavg 0.7¢	$74.01	$488.07	+$414.06	62% 26-16 (42)
Talophex	Noavg 94.3¢	$377.2	$474.75	+$0.6	91% 912-94 (1006)
CO cowcatCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$17.04	$90.06	+$73.03	53% 1534-1336 (2870)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.5¢	$38.28	$33.75	-$4.53	57% 12489-9413 (21902)

milkteabobaCTR

Yes

Invested

$74.01

Value

$488.07

PnL

+$414.06

Record

62%

26-16 (42)

Talophex

Invested

$377.2

Value

$474.75

PnL

+$0.6

Record

91%

912-94 (1006)

cowcatCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.04

Value

$90.06

PnL

+$73.03

Record

53%

1534-1336 (2870)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$38.28

Value

$33.75

PnL

-$4.53

Record

57%

12489-9413 (21902)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 4 top traders (25%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.1%

95.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.