Will AJ Dybantsa win the 2026-27 NBA Rookie of the Year?

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 89¢ · $916 held · ends May 1, 2027

Yes12¢No88¢Ends Sat, May 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 80%

Total Value

$916.38

Combined PnL

$20.52

Smart Money Entry

81.5¢ → 88.5¢

+9% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 89%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes12%

No89%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$862.35

Total Shares972

Combined PnL+$33.57

Yes1 trader

Total Value$54.04

Total Shares373

Combined PnL-$13.04

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
balthazar	Noavg 82.1¢	$423.45	$440.93	+$17.48	62% 19931-12391 (32322)
AJ AJSV	Noavg 80.1¢	$404.97	$370.3	+$15.33	36% 14275-25592 (39867)
saintaphextwinCTR<$100	Yesavg 18¢	$67.08	$54.04	-$13.04	38% 377-606 (983)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 88¢	$39.41	$39.41	+$0	57% 12489-9413 (21902)
KO korda77<$100	Noavg 80¢	$10.95	$11.7	+$0.75	53% 4771-4302 (9073)

balthazar

Invested

$423.45

Value

$440.93

PnL

+$17.48

Record

62%

19931-12391 (32322)

AJSV

Invested

$404.97

Value

$370.3

PnL

+$15.33

Record

36%

14275-25592 (39867)

saintaphextwinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$67.08

Value

$54.04

PnL

-$13.04

Record

38%

377-606 (983)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$39.41

Value

$39.41

PnL

+$0

Record

57%

12489-9413 (21902)

korda77<$100

Invested

$10.95

Value

$11.7

PnL

+$0.75

Record

53%

4771-4302 (9073)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 89%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.0%

88.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$11.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

111.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.