Will Abdul El-Sayed run 0 to 3 points behind Jocelyn Benson?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 55¢ · $361 held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 67%
$361.04
$143.8
58¢ → 55¢
-5% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 55%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 clazzy1CTR | Yesavg 23.5¢ | $89.4 | $237 | +$147.6 | 62% 340-206 (546) |
AJ AJSV | Noavg 58.1¢ | $121.17 | $117.44 | -$3.73 | 36% 12921-22626 (35547) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 55¢ | $6.71 | $6.6 | -$0.07 | 54% 264-222 (486) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
55.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.