Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 94¢ · $5K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
$4.8K
-$31.15
91.9¢ → 93.5¢
+2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 94%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BT BTCGambler247 | Noavg 91¢ | $2.3K | $2.3K | +$62.51 | 47% 217-240 (457) |
XC xcaiox | Noavg 93.7¢ | $100 | $1.8K | +$82.63 | 77% 200-60 (260) |
 Tenebrus7 | Noavg 90¢ | $450 | $462.5 | +$17.5 | 73% 2899-1056 (3955) |
 aenews2CTR | Yesavg 13.1¢ | $409.44 | $215.66 | -$193.79 | 60% 1755-1158 (2913) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
93.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.