Will there be 20 to 34 West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases among NYC residents in 2026?

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 96¢ · $5K held · ends Apr 1, 2027

Yes96¢No4¢Ends Thu, Apr 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 80%

Total Value

$4.8K

Combined PnL

$1.0K

Smart Money Entry

68.3¢ → 95.5¢

+40% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 96%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes96%

No5%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$4.8K

Total Shares4,933

Combined PnL+$1.1K

No1 trader

Total Value$1.72

Total Shares43

Combined PnL-$4.03

Yes — 80%No — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0x56e777a0ac58b25be414f8f29866e99ad5737c0b	Yesavg 81.6¢	$2.5K	$2.9K	+$361.61	71% 65-27 (92)
SN SnapElectionAvoider	Yesavg 32.6¢	$597.9	$1.3K	+$689.38	52% 1004-922 (1926)
Istaroth	Yesavg 90.1¢	$530.37	$466.03	-$44.53	49% 269-276 (545)
2B9S<$100	Yesavg 40.8¢	$46.98	$91.24	+$44.25	18% 3382-15511 (18893)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Noavg 20.1¢	$14.29	$1.72	-$4.03	54% 4740-4091 (8831)

0x56e777a0ac58b25be414f8f29866e99ad5737c0b

Yes

Invested

$2,478.94

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$361.61

Record

71%

65-27 (92)

SnapElectionAvoider

Yes

Invested

$597.9

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$689.38

Record

52%

1004-922 (1926)

Istaroth

Yes

Invested

$530.37

Value

$466.03

PnL

-$44.53

Record

49%

269-276 (545)

2B9S<$100

Yes

Invested

$46.98

Value

$91.24

PnL

+$44.25

Record

18%

3382-15511 (18893)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Invested

$14.29

Value

$1.72

PnL

-$4.03

Record

54%

4740-4091 (8831)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 96%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.7%

95.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.