Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Portuguesa FC win on 2026-10-25?

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 1.1¢ · $193 held · ended Oct 25

Yes1¢No99¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

Total Value

$192.95

Combined PnL

$5.66

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$119.31

Total Shares118

Combined PnL+$13.84

Yes4 traders

Total Value$73.64

Total Shares637

Combined PnL-$8.17

No — 33%Yes — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 86.3¢	$97.08	$108.67	+$11.59	50% 7903-7970 (15873)
0X 0xcba9371dcbbd7a48b477f04274376e1feea9f812CTR<$100	Yesavg 31.8¢	$33	$24.88	-$8.12	34% 69-136 (205)
BE BetzikoCTR<$100	Yesavg 25.1¢	$23.8	$22.8	-$1	55% 4982-4149 (9131)
SA Saber-greedCTR<$100	Yesavg 24.9¢	$16.04	$20.88	+$4.83	59% 2314-1604 (3918)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 77.8¢	$8.39	$10.63	+$2.24	56% 1802-1398 (3200)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.6¢	$8.97	$5.09	-$3.89	52% 16709-15271 (31980)

LuckyLoo

Invested

$97.08

Value

$108.67

PnL

+$11.59

Record

50%

7903-7970 (15873)

0xcba9371dcbbd7a48b477f04274376e1feea9f812CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$33

Value

$24.88

PnL

-$8.12

Record

34%

69-136 (205)

BetzikoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$23.8

Value

$22.8

PnL

-$1

Record

55%

4982-4149 (9131)

Saber-greedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.04

Value

$20.88

PnL

+$4.83

Record

59%

2314-1604 (3918)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$8.39

Value

$10.63

PnL

+$2.24

Record

56%

1802-1398 (3200)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.97

Value

$5.09

PnL

-$3.89

Record

52%

16709-15271 (31980)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance2.3%

1.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4334.22

Max Loss

-$100.00

4434.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.