Will Carabobo FC win on 2026-10-25?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 59¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 40%
$2.0K
-$62.35
55.9¢ → 59¢
+5% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 59%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SA Saber-greed | Noavg 55.9¢ | $1.1K | $959.66 | -$93 | 59% 2263-1576 (3839) |
GA GamblingAddict12345CTR | Yesavg 46¢ | $500 | $521.74 | +$16.3 | 59% 3058-2111 (5169) |
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR | Yesavg 47¢ | $235 | $240 | +$5 | 47% 1976-2210 (4186) |
NO NotradecopyCTR | Yesavg 46¢ | $222.41 | $232.08 | +$9.67 | 60% 2992-2003 (4995) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Noavg 55¢ | $6.05 | $5.72 | -$0.33 | 68% 31121-14960 (46081) |
Invested
$1,052.65
Value
$959.66
PnL
-$93
Record
59%
2263-1576 (3839)
Invested
$500
Value
$521.74
PnL
+$16.3
Record
59%
3058-2111 (5169)
Invested
$235
Value
$240
PnL
+$5
Record
47%
1976-2210 (4186)
Invested
$222.41
Value
$232.08
PnL
+$9.67
Record
60%
2992-2003 (4995)
Invested
$6.05
Value
$5.72
PnL
-$0.33
Record
68%
31121-14960 (46081)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
59.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.