Will Metropolitanos FC win on 2026-10-25?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 99¢ · $872 held · ended Oct 25

Yes1¢No99¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$872.09

Combined PnL

-$102.47

Smart Money Entry

71.9¢ → 98.9¢

+37% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$830.65

Total Shares921

Combined PnL-$89.59

Yes3 traders

Total Value$41.43

Total Shares179

Combined PnL-$12.89

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (5 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 65¢	$285.11	$347.99	+$62.89	51% 18652-17998 (36650)
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 80.5¢	$452.7	$300.18	-$152.52	68% 33658-15496 (49154)
RN1	Noavg 73¢	$164.58	$163.83	-$0.75	55% 46138-38317 (84455)
BE BetzikoCTR<$100	Yesavg 23.7¢	$29.25	$23.9	-$5.35	55% 5394-4503 (9897)
LS LSB1CTR<$100	Yesavg 40¢	$20	$13.5	-$6.5	78% 1817-506 (2323)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Noavg 73¢	$8.73	$8.73	-$0	50% 8027-8078 (16105)
tradecraft<$100	Noavg 63.2¢	$5.16	$5.96	+$0.8	52% 5561-5176 (10737)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 21.2¢	$5.07	$4.03	-$1.04	56% 1895-1497 (3392)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Noavg 79¢	$3.95	$3.95	+$0	50% 9163-9084 (18247)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$285.11

Value

$347.99

PnL

+$62.89

Record

51%

18652-17998 (36650)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$452.7

Value

$300.18

PnL

-$152.52

Record

68%

33658-15496 (49154)

RN1

Invested

$164.58

Value

$163.83

PnL

-$0.75

Record

55%

46138-38317 (84455)

BetzikoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$29.25

Value

$23.9

PnL

-$5.35

Record

55%

5394-4503 (9897)

LSB1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20

Value

$13.5

PnL

-$6.5

Record

78%

1817-506 (2323)

LuckyLoo<$100

Invested

$8.73

Value

$8.73

PnL

-$0

Record

50%

8027-8078 (16105)

tradecraft<$100

Invested

$5.16

Value

$5.96

PnL

+$0.8

Record

52%

5561-5176 (10737)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.07

Value

$4.03

PnL

-$1.04

Record

56%

1895-1497 (3392)

SnakeBall<$100

Invested

$3.95

Value

$3.95

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

9163-9084 (18247)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (5 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

98.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.