Will Deportivo La Guaira vs. Metropolitanos FC end in a draw?

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 71¢ · $153 held · ended Oct 25

Yes29¢No71¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$153.12

Combined PnL

-$8.23

Smart Money Entry

69¢ → 71¢

+3% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 71%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes29%

No71%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$152.16

Total Shares189

Combined PnL-$8.03

Yes1 trader

Total Value$0.96

Total Shares4

Combined PnL-$0.2

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 69.4¢	$154.15	$145.33	-$8.82	68% 33658-15496 (49154)
BE Betziko<$100	Noavg 70.8¢	$4.6	$4.62	+$0.02	55% 5394-4503 (9897)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Noavg 46¢	$1.43	$2.21	+$0.78	51% 18652-17998 (36650)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 29¢	$1.16	$0.96	-$0.2	56% 1895-1497 (3392)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$154.15

Value

$145.33

PnL

-$8.82

Record

68%

33658-15496 (49154)

Betziko<$100

Invested

$4.6

Value

$4.62

PnL

+$0.02

Record

55%

5394-4503 (9897)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Invested

$1.43

Value

$2.21

PnL

+$0.78

Record

51%

18652-17998 (36650)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.16

Value

$0.96

PnL

-$0.2

Record

56%

1895-1497 (3392)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 71%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance73.0%

71.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$36.97

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.