Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (93%). 6 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Deportivo La Guaira win on 2026-10-25?

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 7.5¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 25

Yes93¢No7¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$2.1K

Combined PnL

$92.59

Smart Money Entry

66¢ → 7.5¢

-89% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 8%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 93%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes93%

No8%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares2,175

Combined PnL+$131.25

Yes2 traders

Total Value$259.86

Total Shares301

Combined PnL-$38.65

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1CTR	Noavg 66.1¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$100.08	55% 46138-38317 (84455)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Noavg 65.5¢	$316.2	$347.56	+$31.36	51% 18652-17998 (36650)
UP UpTheBlues	Yesavg 72¢	$265.6	$229.17	-$36.43	68% 33658-15496 (49154)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Noavg 66¢	$84.25	$85.52	+$1.28	50% 9163-9084 (18247)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Yesavg 39¢	$32.92	$30.69	-$2.22	50% 8027-8078 (16105)
BE BetzikoCTR<$100	Noavg 67¢	$5.1	$5	-$0.1	55% 5394-4503 (9897)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Noavg 64¢	$4.2	$4.34	+$0.14	50% 15913-16145 (32058)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Noavg 65¢	$1.84	$0.32	-$1.52	56% 1895-1497 (3392)

RN1CTR

Invested

$1,334.63

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$100.08

Record

55%

46138-38317 (84455)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Invested

$316.2

Value

$347.56

PnL

+$31.36

Record

51%

18652-17998 (36650)

UpTheBlues

Yes

Invested

$265.6

Value

$229.17

PnL

-$36.43

Record

68%

33658-15496 (49154)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Invested

$84.25

Value

$85.52

PnL

+$1.28

Record

50%

9163-9084 (18247)

LuckyLoo<$100

Yes

Invested

$32.92

Value

$30.69

PnL

-$2.22

Record

50%

8027-8078 (16105)

BetzikoCTR<$100

Invested

$5.1

Value

PnL

-$0.1

Record

55%

5394-4503 (9897)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Invested

$4.2

Value

$4.34

PnL

+$0.14

Record

50%

15913-16145 (32058)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Invested

$1.84

Value

$0.32

PnL

-$1.52

Record

56%

1895-1497 (3392)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 8%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 93%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance8.9%

7.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1025.00

Max Loss

-$100.00

1125.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.