Vance announces he won't run for President in 2028 this year?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 89¢ · $1K held · ends Dec 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$1.2K
$37.2
81¢ → 89¢
+10% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 89%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+20 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 79%
Freshness
Late
2469h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
14 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 mombil | Noavg 83¢ | $18.36 | $598.52 | +$32.03 | 55% 1184-964 (2148) |
 vinii | Noavg 79.7¢ | $264.59 | $297.14 | +$30.89 | 74% 2499-895 (3394) |
 FrozenParasite | Noavg 75¢ | $150 | $178 | +$28 | 55% 402-328 (730) |
 bernardbulletin<$100 | Noavg 86¢ | $54.27 | $56.17 | +$1.89 | 68% 929-437 (1366) |
 Contentious-DinnerdateCTR | Yesavg 24.4¢ | $101.15 | $45.53 | -$55.61 | 50% 363-356 (719) |
mombilInvested
$18.36
Value
$598.52
PnL
+$32.03
Record
55%
1184-964 (2148)
viniiInvested
$264.59
Value
$297.14
PnL
+$30.89
Record
74%
2499-895 (3394)
FrozenParasiteInvested
$150
Value
$178
PnL
+$28
Record
55%
402-328 (730)
bernardbulletin<$100Invested
$54.27
Value
$56.17
PnL
+$1.89
Record
68%
929-437 (1366)
Contentious-DinnerdateCTRInvested
$101.15
Value
$45.53
PnL
-$55.61
Record
50%
363-356 (719)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
89.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.