Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold FENNEL Female, while the market favors SK Nebula (84%). 2 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Valorant: SK Nebula vs FENNEL Female (BO3) - VCT Game Changers Championship Playoffs

2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold FENNEL Female (29%) · FENNEL Female at 17¢ · $894 held · ends Oct 27

SK Nebula84¢FENNEL Female16¢Ends Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

FENNEL Female

Consensus Traders

FENNEL Female 29%

Total Value

$893.97

Combined PnL

-$518.69

Smart Money Entry

29.5¢ → 16.5¢

-44% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidFENNEL Female at 17%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

FENNEL Female

2 of 7 top traders (29%)Underdog side (market favors SK Nebula 84%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

SK Nebula84%

FENNEL Female17%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

FENNEL Female2 traders

Total Value$547.62

Total Shares3,633

Combined PnL-$525.69

SK Nebula5 traders

Total Value$346.35

Total Shares512

Combined PnL+$7.01

FENNEL Female — 29%SK Nebula — 71%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GR gregbeastCTR	FENNEL Femaleavg 29.5¢	$1.1K	$542.57	-$525.31	39% 156-239 (395)
VeryLucky888	SK Nebulaavg 64.7¢	$145.24	$151.61	+$6.36	58% 37814-27550 (65364)
JI jiafan	SK Nebulaavg 67.6¢	$127.77	$127.56	-$0.21	59% 1428-980 (2408)
FO forecastication4<$100	SK Nebulaavg 66¢	$42.96	$43.93	+$0.98	49% 1047-1107 (2154)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	SK Nebulaavg 71¢	$22.05	$21.9	-$0.16	60% 28339-19173 (47512)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	FENNEL Femaleavg 35¢	$5.44	$5.06	-$0.39	50% 11010-11181 (22191)
HRTrading<$100	SK Nebulaavg 66¢	$1.32	$1.35	+$0.03	55% 2167-1782 (3949)

gregbeastCTR

FENNEL Female

Invested

$1,067.87

Value

$542.57

PnL

-$525.31

Record

39%

156-239 (395)

VeryLucky888

SK Nebula

Invested

$145.24

Value

$151.61

PnL

+$6.36

Record

58%

37814-27550 (65364)

jiafan

SK Nebula

Invested

$127.77

Value

$127.56

PnL

-$0.21

Record

59%

1428-980 (2408)

forecastication4<$100

SK Nebula

Invested

$42.96

Value

$43.93

PnL

+$0.98

Record

49%

1047-1107 (2154)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

SK Nebula

Invested

$22.05

Value

$21.9

PnL

-$0.16

Record

60%

28339-19173 (47512)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

FENNEL Female

Invested

$5.44

Value

$5.06

PnL

-$0.39

Record

50%

11010-11181 (22191)

HRTrading<$100

SK Nebula

Invested

$1.32

Value

$1.35

PnL

+$0.03

Record

55%

2167-1782 (3949)

Research grade

AvoidFENNEL Female at 17%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

FENNEL Female

2 of 7 top traders (29%)Underdog side (market favors SK Nebula 84%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that FENNEL Female wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance18.2%

16.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$448.79

Max Loss

-$100.00

548.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.