Valorant: Gen.G GC vs FENNEL Female (BO3) - VCT Game Changers Championship Playoffs
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold FENNEL Female (57%) · FENNEL Female at 55¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
FENNEL Female
7
FENNEL Female 57%
$1.6K
$22.98
41.5¢ → 54.5¢
+31% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralFENNEL Female at 55%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GR gregbeast | FENNEL Femaleavg 41.5¢ | $830.43 | $850.13 | +$19.7 | 40% 131-197 (328) |
 KateBollingerCTR | Gen.G GCavg 57¢ | $460.08 | $464.12 | +$4.04 | 69% 1658-731 (2389) |
JI jiafanCTR | Gen.G GCavg 61¢ | $134.76 | $132.6 | -$2.16 | 61% 1318-837 (2155) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | FENNEL Femaleavg 41.8¢ | $83.37 | $84.86 | +$1.5 | 58% 31904-23124 (55028) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | FENNEL Femaleavg 40¢ | $22.76 | $22.76 | +$0 | 67% 31285-15084 (46369) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | FENNEL Femaleavg 43¢ | $6.51 | $6.43 | -$0.08 | 59% 13975-9717 (23692) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Gen.G GCavg 59¢ | $2.36 | $2.34 | -$0.02 | 57% 1578-1171 (2749) |
Invested
$830.43
Value
$850.13
PnL
+$19.7
Record
40%
131-197 (328)
KateBollingerCTRInvested
$460.08
Value
$464.12
PnL
+$4.04
Record
69%
1658-731 (2389)
Invested
$134.76
Value
$132.6
PnL
-$2.16
Record
61%
1318-837 (2155)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$83.37
Value
$84.86
PnL
+$1.5
Record
58%
31904-23124 (55028)
Invested
$22.76
Value
$22.76
PnL
+$0
Record
67%
31285-15084 (46369)
Invested
$6.51
Value
$6.43
PnL
-$0.08
Record
59%
13975-9717 (23692)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$2.36
Value
$2.34
PnL
-$0.02
Record
57%
1578-1171 (2749)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.