Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs Nova Esports (BO5) - VCT Threshold China Week 1
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Dragon Ranger Gaming (100%) · Dragon Ranger Gaming at 94¢ · $10K held · ends Oct 25
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Neutral
Dragon Ranger Gaming
7
Dragon Ranger Gaming 100%
$10.2K
$3.0K
46.9¢ → 93.8¢
+100% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralDragon Ranger Gaming at 94%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
-14 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 86%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
86% of non-arb traders are on Dragon Ranger Gaming. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GR gregbeast | Dragon Ranger Gamingavg 44¢ | $4.4K | $6.7K | +$2.3K | 40% 130-197 (327) |
 esportsbetter1 | Dragon Ranger Gamingavg 59¢ | $1.1K | $1.6K | +$451.51 | 48% 140-149 (289) |
 teardropsaidmyname | Dragon Ranger Gamingavg 44¢ | $500 | $764.42 | -$6.14 | 52% 400-368 (768) |
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2 | Dragon Ranger Gamingavg 56¢ | $371.4 | $407.8 | +$36.4 | 53% 12198-10936 (23134) |
PI PIPIZIN | Dragon Ranger Gamingavg 52.1¢ | $300 | $387.94 | +$87.94 | 52% 366-342 (708) |
 PROBABILITYTRADER | Dragon Ranger Gamingavg 40¢ | $61.42 | $129.74 | +$68.33 | 42% 1005-1365 (2370) |
0X 0x14cA946e75D59b8B7EbE21110512f7b885d78F43-1769608890569 | Dragon Ranger Gamingavg 67.3¢ | $100.32 | $125.91 | +$25.58 | 46% 765-885 (1650) |
Invested
$4,400
Value
$6.7K
PnL
+$2.3K
Record
40%
130-197 (327)
esportsbetter1Invested
$1,131.59
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$451.51
Record
48%
140-149 (289)
teardropsaidmynameInvested
$500
Value
$764.42
PnL
-$6.14
Record
52%
400-368 (768)
Invested
$371.4
Value
$407.8
PnL
+$36.4
Record
53%
12198-10936 (23134)
Invested
$300
Value
$387.94
PnL
+$87.94
Record
52%
366-342 (708)
PROBABILITYTRADERInvested
$61.42
Value
$129.74
PnL
+$68.33
Record
42%
1005-1365 (2370)
Invested
$100.32
Value
$125.91
PnL
+$25.58
Record
46%
765-885 (1650)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
93.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
gregbeast
Dragon Ranger Gaming — $6.7K
esportsbetter1
Dragon Ranger Gaming — $1.6K
teardropsaidmyname
Dragon Ranger Gaming — $764.42
0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2
Dragon Ranger Gaming — $407.8
PIPIZIN
Dragon Ranger Gaming — $387.94
PROBABILITYTRADER
Dragon Ranger Gaming — $129.74
0x14cA946e75D59b8B7EbE21110512f7b885d78F43-1769608890569
Dragon Ranger Gaming — $125.91