Valorant: BBL Esports vs Fire Flux Esports (BO5) - Monsters Reloaded Playoffs
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold BBL Esports (75%) · BBL Esports at 78¢ · $14K held · ends Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
BBL Esports
4
BBL Esports 75%
$13.6K
$-3.8K
97.5¢ → 78¢
-20% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralBBL Esports at 78%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZX zxc368 | BBL Esportsavg 99.9¢ | $15.0K | $11.7K | $-3.3K | 99% 9037-127 (9164) |
 KateBollingerCTR | Fire Flux Esportsavg 47.1¢ | $1.6K | $766.25 | -$873.39 | 69% 1657-731 (2388) |
 teardropsaidmyname | BBL Esportsavg 62.1¢ | $450 | $724.09 | +$274.45 | 52% 400-371 (771) |
0X 0x14cA946e75D59b8B7EbE21110512f7b885d78F43-1769608890569 | BBL Esportsavg 70.9¢ | $273.13 | $384.62 | +$111.48 | 47% 780-895 (1675) |
Invested
$15,011.1
Value
$11.7K
PnL
$-3.3K
Record
99%
9037-127 (9164)
KateBollingerCTRInvested
$1,639.64
Value
$766.25
PnL
-$873.39
Record
69%
1657-731 (2388)
teardropsaidmynameInvested
$450
Value
$724.09
PnL
+$274.45
Record
52%
400-371 (771)
Invested
$273.13
Value
$384.62
PnL
+$111.48
Record
47%
780-895 (1675)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
78.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.