Will Xorazm Fk Urganch win on 2026-10-26?
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (43%) · No at 99¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 43%
$1.6K
-$107.57
95.5¢ → 99.5¢
+4% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Noavg 95¢ | $904.98 | $858.47 | -$46.51 | 54% 51828-43764 (95592) |
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 96.2¢ | $690.45 | $714.06 | +$23.61 | 60% 39852-26467 (66319) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.1¢ | $37.13 | $9.14 | -$27.99 | 50% 9389-9311 (18700) |
BE BetzikoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 15.1¢ | $19.64 | $5.99 | -$13.65 | 54% 5749-4837 (10586) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 99.2¢ | $3.98 | $3.99 | +$0.01 | 55% 2155-1770 (3925) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Yesavg 14.7¢ | $46.11 | $3.14 | -$42.97 | 51% 21853-21263 (43116) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.5¢ | $0.13 | $0.05 | -$0.07 | 50% 10896-11050 (21946) |
RN1Invested
$904.98
Value
$858.47
PnL
-$46.51
Record
54%
51828-43764 (95592)
Invested
$690.45
Value
$714.06
PnL
+$23.61
Record
60%
39852-26467 (66319)
Invested
$37.13
Value
$9.14
PnL
-$27.99
Record
50%
9389-9311 (18700)
Invested
$19.64
Value
$5.99
PnL
-$13.65
Record
54%
5749-4837 (10586)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$3.98
Value
$3.99
PnL
+$0.01
Record
55%
2155-1770 (3925)
Invested
$46.11
Value
$3.14
PnL
-$42.97
Record
51%
21853-21263 (43116)
Invested
$0.13
Value
$0.05
PnL
-$0.07
Record
50%
10896-11050 (21946)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.