Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (90%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Xorazm Fk Urganch vs. Navbahor: O/U 3.5
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (40%) · Over at 11¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 26
⚠️
Avoid
Over
5
Over 40%
1 arb excluded
$4.0K
$109.86
43.6¢ → 10.5¢
-76% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 11%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Under 90%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SH Shimi1234CTR | Overavg 43¢ | $1.7K | $1.7K | -$141.03 | 39% 99-155 (254) |
LU LuckyLoo | Underavg 56.4¢ | $686.35 | $924.16 | +$237.81 | 50% 10896-11050 (21946) |
 RN1ARB<$100 | Underavg 61.7¢ | $565.92 | $721 | +$155.08 | 54% 51828-43764 (95592) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 61.7¢ | $383.12 | $484.43 | +$101.32 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 17¢ | $182.8 | $236.56 | +$53.76 | |
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 50.5¢ | $319.53 | $360.86 | +$41.33 | 60% 39852-26467 (66319) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Overavg 48.9¢ | $235.94 | $207.33 | -$28.61 | 51% 21853-21263 (43116) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 53¢ | $4.77 | $5.13 | +$0.36 | 55% 2155-1770 (3925) |
Invested
$1,732.72
Value
$1.7K
PnL
-$141.03
Record
39%
99-155 (254)
Invested
$686.35
Value
$924.16
PnL
+$237.81
Record
50%
10896-11050 (21946)
RN1ARB<$100Invested
$565.92
Value
$721
PnL
+$155.08
Record
54%
51828-43764 (95592)
Both legs:
Invested
$319.53
Value
$360.86
PnL
+$41.33
Record
60%
39852-26467 (66319)
Invested
$235.94
Value
$207.33
PnL
-$28.61
Record
51%
21853-21263 (43116)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$4.77
Value
$5.13
PnL
+$0.36
Record
55%
2155-1770 (3925)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
10.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.