Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 5 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Xorazm Fk Urganch vs. Navbahor: O/U 2.5
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (63%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 26
⚠️
Avoid
Under
8
Under 63%
$2.0K
$-1.5K
36.2¢ → 0.1¢
-100% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LE legitgame | Overavg 55.8¢ | $1.1K | $1.6K | +$504.71 | 57% 221-168 (389) |
LO looppau | Overavg 99.9¢ | $299.7 | $299.85 | +$0.15 | 99% 9130-41 (9171) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Underavg 47.1¢ | $165 | $46 | -$47 | 58% 37543-27331 (64874) |
 RN1CTR | Underavg 25.8¢ | $479.78 | $22.78 | -$457 | 54% 51828-43764 (95592) |
AR ARocky33<$100 | Overavg 94¢ | $9.4 | $10 | +$0.6 | 76% 3669-1171 (4840) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Underavg 40¢ | $865.17 | $1.08 | -$864.09 | 51% 21853-21263 (43116) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Underavg 41.4¢ | $628.05 | $0.76 | -$627.29 | 60% 39852-26467 (66319) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Underavg 38¢ | $21.46 | $0.03 | -$21.43 | 55% 2155-1770 (3925) |
Invested
$1,115.28
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$504.71
Record
57%
221-168 (389)
Invested
$299.7
Value
$299.85
PnL
+$0.15
Record
99%
9130-41 (9171)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$165
Value
$46
PnL
-$47
Record
58%
37543-27331 (64874)
RN1CTRInvested
$479.78
Value
$22.78
PnL
-$457
Record
54%
51828-43764 (95592)
Invested
$9.4
Value
$10
PnL
+$0.6
Record
76%
3669-1171 (4840)
Invested
$865.17
Value
$1.08
PnL
-$864.09
Record
51%
21853-21263 (43116)
Invested
$628.05
Value
$0.76
PnL
-$627.29
Record
60%
39852-26467 (66319)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$21.46
Value
$0.03
PnL
-$21.43
Record
55%
2155-1770 (3925)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.