Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (92%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Navbahor win on 2026-10-26?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 8.0¢ · $63 held · ended Oct 26
⚠️
Avoid
No
4
No 50%
$62.78
-$76.24
19.3¢ → 8¢
-59% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 8%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 92%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Noavg 19.9¢ | $124.45 | $50.1 | -$74.35 | 60% 39852-26467 (66319) |
RO Rocky31<$100 | Yesavg 92¢ | $4.6 | $4.6 | +$0.18 | 73% 1357-513 (1870) |
 RN1<$100 | Yesavg 84.7¢ | $4.13 | $4.08 | -$0.04 | 54% 51828-43764 (95592) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Noavg 12¢ | $6.02 | $4 | -$2.02 | 50% 10896-11050 (21946) |
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
8.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.