Will Xorazm Fk Urganch vs. Navbahor end in a draw?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 76¢ · $162 held · ended Oct 26

Yes24¢No76¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$162.21

Combined PnL

$37.49

Smart Money Entry

78.6¢ → 76¢

-3% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 76%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes24%

No76%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$99.95

Total Shares132

Combined PnL-$3.48

Yes2 traders

Total Value$62.27

Total Shares291

Combined PnL+$40.97

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues<$100	Noavg 76.9¢	$88.45	$87.4	-$1.05	60% 39852-26467 (66319)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.9¢	$12.34	$60.47	+$48.14	50% 10896-11050 (21946)
RN1<$100	Noavg 90.7¢	$14.97	$12.55	-$2.43	54% 51828-43764 (95592)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 23¢	$8.96	$1.79	-$7.17	58% 37543-27331 (64874)

UpTheBlues<$100

Invested

$88.45

Value

$87.4

PnL

-$1.05

Record

60%

39852-26467 (66319)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.34

Value

$60.47

PnL

+$48.14

Record

50%

10896-11050 (21946)

RN1<$100

Invested

$14.97

Value

$12.55

PnL

-$2.43

Record

54%

51828-43764 (95592)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.96

Value

$1.79

PnL

-$7.17

Record

58%

37543-27331 (64874)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 76%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance77.9%

76.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$28.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

128.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.