Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (51%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will PFK Dinamo Samarqand win on 2026-10-25?

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 49¢ · $13K held · ended Oct 25

Yes51¢No49¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$12.5K

Combined PnL

$455.92

Smart Money Entry

61.7¢ → 49¢

-21% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 49%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 51%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes51%

No49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$7.2K

Total Shares12,566

Combined PnL-$588.92

Yes3 traders

Total Value$5.4K

Total Shares11,316

Combined PnL+$1.0K

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JU justbusiness1CTR	Noavg 61.8¢	$7.4K	$6.8K	-$578.22	55% 189-154 (343)
UP UpTheBlues	Yesavg 38.1¢	$3.1K	$4.0K	+$892.91	68% 31119-14954 (46073)
RN1	Yesavg 38¢	$1.1K	$1.3K	+$148.56	55% 43492-35800 (79292)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Noavg 59¢	$280.56	$271.51	-$9.05	59% 13892-9640 (23532)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Yesavg 41¢	$68.88	$72.24	+$3.36	50% 7758-7812 (15570)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Noavg 57.7¢	$56.4	$54.75	-$1.66	52% 16269-14809 (31078)

justbusiness1CTR

Invested

$7,418.22

Value

$6.8K

PnL

-$578.22

Record

55%

189-154 (343)

UpTheBlues

Yes

Invested

$3,113.57

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$892.91

Record

68%

31119-14954 (46073)

RN1

Yes

Invested

$1,129.05

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$148.56

Record

55%

43492-35800 (79292)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Invested

$280.56

Value

$271.51

PnL

-$9.05

Record

59%

13892-9640 (23532)

LuckyLoo<$100

Yes

Invested

$68.88

Value

$72.24

PnL

+$3.36

Record

50%

7758-7812 (15570)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Invested

$56.4

Value

$54.75

PnL

-$1.66

Record

52%

16269-14809 (31078)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 49%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 51%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.2%

49.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$95.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

195.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.