Will Detroit City FC win on 2026-09-05?
2 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 59¢ · $5K held · ended Sep 5
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
2
Yes 100%
$4.8K
$-4.7K
58¢ → 59¢
+2% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 59%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 2 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
JU justbusiness1 | Yesavg 58.1¢ | $4.7K | $4.7K | $-4.7K | 53% 254-225 (479) |
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388<$100 | Yesavg 51.2¢ | $12.72 | $14.66 | -$12.72 | 55% 1668-1357 (3025) |
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
59.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.