Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Yes — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Yes
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?
Resolved Yes. 78% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
101
Yes 72%
$489.5K
$10.1K
Smart Money Signal
79 of 101 top traders (78%)22 hold an outcome priced under 50%45 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 scout | Yesavg 99.1¢ | $201.3K | $192.1K | +$1.6K | 91% 735-76 (811) |
0X 0x8B4bcA1D794779E66e023D44391B2A86C5ab541B-1769764313952 | Yesavg 97.5¢ | $29.3K | $30.0K | +$741 | 84% 544-101 (645) |
ME melonmanm | Yesavg 88.9¢ | $26.6K | $30.0K | +$3.3K | 65% 460-251 (711) |
CA cashy | Yesavg 84.9¢ | $23.6K | $27.8K | +$4.2K | 71% 597-244 (841) |
 yen4u | Yesavg 97.8¢ | $17.8K | $18.2K | +$315.75 | 84% 629-123 (752) |
 Dropper | Yesavg 80¢ | $11.6K | $14.5K | +$2.9K | 73% 1129-428 (1557) |
 Car | Yesavg 99¢ | $72.9K | $13.6K | +$132.76 | 68% 4085-1966 (6051) |
ON onekey02 | Yesavg 99.5¢ | $13.0K | $13.1K | +$60.17 | 97% 352-10 (362) |
 Lolakis | Yesavg 99.3¢ | $12.9K | $13.0K | +$91.06 | 61% 633-407 (1040) |
 JJo | Yesavg 99¢ | $12.7K | $12.9K | +$128.77 | 66% 932-490 (1422) |
 themagicofcinema | Yesavg 95.7¢ | $20.6K | $11.5K | +$695.83 | 65% 349-191 (540) |
WA wan123 | Yesavg 46.5¢ | $8.7K | $10.6K | +$1.9K | 40% 192-292 (484) |
 arjennnnn | Yesavg 96.4¢ | $68.4K | $10.3K | +$367.58 | 72% 792-311 (1103) |
 Marco-Rubio | Yesavg 90.1¢ | $24.6K | $10.3K | +$1.5K | 53% 481-433 (914) |
 tourists | Yesavg 85.7¢ | $8.0K | $9.4K | +$1.3K | 66% 420-216 (636) |
DR dromedaryy | Yesavg 83.5¢ | $5.6K | $6.7K | +$1.1K | 34% 23-44 (67) |
IV ivantoney | Yesavg 83.4¢ | $5.5K | $6.6K | +$1.1K | — 5-1 (6) |
 tetrase | Yesavg 96¢ | $5.8K | $5.8K | +$231.03 | 60% 786-531 (1317) |
0X 0xff1e352d5310eab17d1e9fd7e00ec33f16c05e2 | Yesavg 92.6¢ | $4.8K | $5.2K | +$383.44 | 97% 253-8 (261) |
0X 0x3fd0190eb137e335db080b9855f90c86849f0022 | Yesavg 93.3¢ | $4.3K | $4.7K | +$402.8 | 73% 149-55 (204) |
 classified | Yesavg 92.3¢ | $4.3K | $4.3K | +$4.6 | 58% 814-592 (1406) |
 ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Yesavg 95.7¢ | $4.1K | $4.0K | -$49.99 | 57% 14838-11202 (26040) |
BU BunCaCham | Yesavg 96.2¢ | $3.7K | $3.8K | +$144.49 | 98% 2227-54 (2281) |
 Mr-Krabs | Yesavg 86.9¢ | $1.5K | $3.8K | +$407.6 | 78% 555-161 (716) |
HE HerrieDavis | Yesavg 71.4¢ | $2.4K | $3.4K | +$974.93 | 36% 1929-3357 (5286) |
scoutInvested
$201,268.22
Value
$192.1K
PnL
+$1.6K
Record
91%
735-76 (811)
Invested
$29,260.11
Value
$30.0K
PnL
+$741
Record
84%
544-101 (645)
Invested
$26,649.15
Value
$30.0K
PnL
+$3.3K
Record
65%
460-251 (711)
Invested
$23,607.17
Value
$27.8K
PnL
+$4.2K
Record
71%
597-244 (841)
yen4uInvested
$17,813
Value
$18.2K
PnL
+$315.75
Record
84%
629-123 (752)
DropperInvested
$11,624.79
Value
$14.5K
PnL
+$2.9K
Record
73%
1129-428 (1557)
CarInvested
$72,896.7
Value
$13.6K
PnL
+$132.76
Record
68%
4085-1966 (6051)
Invested
$12,994.88
Value
$13.1K
PnL
+$60.17
Record
97%
352-10 (362)
LolakisInvested
$12,895.2
Value
$13.0K
PnL
+$91.06
Record
61%
633-407 (1040)
JJoInvested
$12,747.95
Value
$12.9K
PnL
+$128.77
Record
66%
932-490 (1422)
themagicofcinemaInvested
$20,584.46
Value
$11.5K
PnL
+$695.83
Record
65%
349-191 (540)
Invested
$8,725.91
Value
$10.6K
PnL
+$1.9K
Record
40%
192-292 (484)
arjennnnnInvested
$68,366.48
Value
$10.3K
PnL
+$367.58
Record
72%
792-311 (1103)
Marco-RubioInvested
$24,587.15
Value
$10.3K
PnL
+$1.5K
Record
53%
481-433 (914)
touristsInvested
$8,034.4
Value
$9.4K
PnL
+$1.3K
Record
66%
420-216 (636)
Invested
$5,618.68
Value
$6.7K
PnL
+$1.1K
Record
34%
23-44 (67)
Invested
$5,513.95
Value
$6.6K
PnL
+$1.1K
Record
—
5-1 (6)
tetraseInvested
$5,829.15
Value
$5.8K
PnL
+$231.03
Record
60%
786-531 (1317)
Invested
$4,824.04
Value
$5.2K
PnL
+$383.44
Record
97%
253-8 (261)
Invested
$4,308.27
Value
$4.7K
PnL
+$402.8
Record
73%
149-55 (204)
classifiedInvested
$4,336.77
Value
$4.3K
PnL
+$4.6
Record
58%
814-592 (1406)
ArmageddonRewardsBillyInvested
$4,050
Value
$4.0K
PnL
-$49.99
Record
57%
14838-11202 (26040)
Invested
$3,688.52
Value
$3.8K
PnL
+$144.49
Record
98%
2227-54 (2281)
Mr-KrabsInvested
$1,482.16
Value
$3.8K
PnL
+$407.6
Record
78%
555-161 (716)
Invested
$2,428.94
Value
$3.4K
PnL
+$974.93
Record
36%
1929-3357 (5286)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
scout
Yes — $192.1K
0x8B4bcA1D794779E66e023D44391B2A86C5ab541B-1769764313952
Yes — $30.0K
melonmanm
Yes — $30.0K
cashy
Yes — $27.8K
yen4u
Yes — $18.2K
Dropper
Yes — $14.5K
Car
Yes — $13.6K
onekey02
Yes — $13.1K
Lolakis
Yes — $13.0K
JJo
Yes — $12.9K