US x China Military clash before 2027?

5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 98¢ · $5K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes3¢No97¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 100%

Total Value

$5.3K

Combined PnL

$127.05

Smart Money Entry

95.3¢ → 97.5¢

+2% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 5 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$5.3K

Total Shares5,405

Combined PnL+$127.05

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+20 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Late

585h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AV Avamax	Noavg 95.3¢	$4.7K	$4.8K	+$108.64	80% 374-93 (467)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Noavg 95¢	$302.47	$334.92	+$9.44	77% 10791-3277 (14068)
TH TheFOMCGambler<$100	No	$86.29	$86.29	+$7.52	77% 101-31 (132)
scottxia1988<$100	Noavg 94.7¢	$38.79	$39.94	+$1.15	78% 175-48 (223)
BA balerinacapuchina<$100	Noavg 92¢	$5	$5.29	+$0.3	73% 174-66 (240)

Avamax

Invested

$4,694.71

Value

$4.8K

PnL

+$108.64

Record

80%

374-93 (467)

Elias.Thornwell

Invested

$302.47

Value

$334.92

PnL

+$9.44

Record

77%

10791-3277 (14068)

TheFOMCGambler<$100

Invested

$86.29

Value

$86.29

PnL

+$7.52

Record

77%

101-31 (132)

scottxia1988<$100

Invested

$38.79

Value

$39.94

PnL

+$1.15

Record

78%

175-48 (223)

balerinacapuchina<$100

Invested

Value

$5.29

PnL

+$0.3

Record

73%

174-66 (240)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 5 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+20 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Late

585h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.5%

97.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.52

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.