US Gov confirms PHP2Shell exploited by December 31, 2026?
2 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 99¢ · $561 held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
2
Yes 100%
$560.99
-$4.23
99.8¢ → 99¢
-1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 99%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 2 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x6fa70d26939b2075fcafd2db38099b42cf47907e | Yesavg 99.7¢ | $564.23 | $560 | -$4.22 | 82% 226-50 (276) |
 vinii<$100 | Yesavg 99.9¢ | $1 | $0.99 | -$0.01 | 73% 2622-962 (3584) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.