Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (51%). 2 of 2 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
US bank failure by December 31, 2026?
2 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 50¢ · $222 held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
2
No 100%
$221.94
-$94.07
32.9¢ → 49.5¢
+50% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 50%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 2 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 51%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AJ AJSVCTR | Noavg 36.3¢ | $299.04 | $136.71 | -$149.82 | 36% 13289-23211 (36500) |
 StarMasterCTR<$100 | Noavg 17.1¢ | $29.47 | $85.22 | +$55.76 | 53% 1775-1569 (3344) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.