Will Club Nacional de Football win on 2026-10-25?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 84¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 71%
$3.9K
-$30.43
55.5¢ → 84¢
+51% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 84%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 us391 | Noavg 50¢ | $2.6K | $2.6K | -$52.27 | 52% 1379-1297 (2676) |
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 81.2¢ | $865.53 | $869 | +$3.46 | 50% 9057-8986 (18043) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR | Yesavg 18¢ | $184.32 | $189.44 | +$5.12 | 59% 14319-9905 (24224) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Yesavg 48.9¢ | $180.3 | $188.16 | +$7.86 | 52% 16709-15271 (31980) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Noavg 73.1¢ | $51.51 | $57.11 | +$5.59 | 68% 31996-15360 (47356) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Noavg 82¢ | $14.76 | $14.67 | -$0.09 | 50% 7903-7970 (15873) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 54¢ | $1.08 | $0.98 | -$0.1 | 56% 1802-1398 (3200) |
us391Invested
$2,613.72
Value
$2.6K
PnL
-$52.27
Record
52%
1379-1297 (2676)
Invested
$865.53
Value
$869
PnL
+$3.46
Record
50%
9057-8986 (18043)
Invested
$184.32
Value
$189.44
PnL
+$5.12
Record
59%
14319-9905 (24224)
Invested
$180.3
Value
$188.16
PnL
+$7.86
Record
52%
16709-15271 (31980)
Invested
$51.51
Value
$57.11
PnL
+$5.59
Record
68%
31996-15360 (47356)
Invested
$14.76
Value
$14.67
PnL
-$0.09
Record
50%
7903-7970 (15873)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$1.08
Value
$0.98
PnL
-$0.1
Record
56%
1802-1398 (3200)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
84.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.