Will Liverpool Montevideo win on 2026-10-25?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (83%) · Yes at 77¢ · $215 held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 83%
$214.96
$2.48
30.4¢ → 76.5¢
+152% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 77%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Yesavg 24¢ | $78.52 | $166.85 | +$0 | 58% 33251-24142 (57393) |
SP spyGoodLuck77<$100 | Yesavg 51¢ | $14.28 | $15.4 | +$1.12 | 63% 1463-877 (2340) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Yesavg 78¢ | $14.82 | $14.63 | -$0.19 | 68% 32092-15447 (47539) |
 RN1<$100 | Yesavg 60¢ | $10.08 | $11.53 | +$1.45 | 55% 45430-37648 (83078) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Noavg 45¢ | $4.09 | $4.09 | -$0 | 50% 9139-9049 (18188) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Yesavg 67.7¢ | $2.37 | $2.47 | +$0.1 | 56% 1868-1468 (3336) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$78.52
Value
$166.85
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
33251-24142 (57393)
Invested
$14.28
Value
$15.4
PnL
+$1.12
Record
63%
1463-877 (2340)
Invested
$14.82
Value
$14.63
PnL
-$0.19
Record
68%
32092-15447 (47539)
RN1<$100Invested
$10.08
Value
$11.53
PnL
+$1.45
Record
55%
45430-37648 (83078)
Invested
$4.09
Value
$4.09
PnL
-$0
Record
50%
9139-9049 (18188)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$2.37
Value
$2.47
PnL
+$0.1
Record
56%
1868-1468 (3336)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
76.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.