U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by December 31?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 77¢ · $2K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 100%
1 arb excluded
$1.5K
$19.38
77.5¢ → 76.5¢
-1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 77%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 90%
Freshness
Late
443h old
Flip Quality
Watch
2 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 crypto-basenji | Yesavg 78.5¢ | $975.08 | $968.37 | -$6.71 | 39% 147-230 (377) |
 StarMaster | Yesavg 78¢ | $233.3 | $231.82 | -$1.49 | 53% 1765-1559 (3324) |
AJ AJSVARB<$100 | Yesavg 81.5¢ | $980.14 | $191.11 | -$55.17 | 36% 12900-22608 (35508) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 81.5¢ | $146.61 | $139.48 | -$238 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 24.5¢ | $56.14 | $51.62 | +$182.82 | |
 PaddyAlpha | Yesavg 66.4¢ | $182.67 | $104.27 | +$28.38 | 60% 967-641 (1608) |
 aenews2<$100 | Yesavg 79¢ | $31.6 | $30.8 | -$0.8 | 60% 1740-1151 (2891) |
crypto-basenjiInvested
$975.08
Value
$968.37
PnL
-$6.71
Record
39%
147-230 (377)
StarMasterInvested
$233.3
Value
$231.82
PnL
-$1.49
Record
53%
1765-1559 (3324)
Invested
$980.14
Value
$191.11
PnL
-$55.17
Record
36%
12900-22608 (35508)
Both legs:
PaddyAlphaInvested
$182.67
Value
$104.27
PnL
+$28.38
Record
60%
967-641 (1608)
aenews2<$100Invested
$31.6
Value
$30.8
PnL
-$0.8
Record
60%
1740-1151 (2891)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
76.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.