Ukraine election called by December 31, 2026?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 91¢ · $5K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$4.5K
$168.3
88.7¢ → 90.9¢
+2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 91%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Late
1137h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KR KrackenSruster | Noavg 87.8¢ | $1.0K | $3.4K | +$133.04 | 65% 477-253 (730) |
AJ AJSV | Noavg 91.7¢ | $946.52 | $736.03 | +$19.1 | 36% 12900-22608 (35508) |
AV aviato | Noavg 93¢ | $231.08 | $227.89 | -$4.68 | 85% 2374-403 (2777) |
 PorxCTR | Yesavg 12.3¢ | $153.07 | $147.82 | -$5.26 | 66% 1428-740 (2168) |
 NadmiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.8¢ | $8.4 | $35.66 | +$26.11 | 48% 1996-2164 (4160) |
Invested
$1,024.01
Value
$3.4K
PnL
+$133.04
Record
65%
477-253 (730)
Invested
$946.52
Value
$736.03
PnL
+$19.1
Record
36%
12900-22608 (35508)
Invested
$231.08
Value
$227.89
PnL
-$4.68
Record
85%
2374-403 (2777)
PorxCTRInvested
$153.07
Value
$147.82
PnL
-$5.26
Record
66%
1428-740 (2168)
NadmiCTR<$100Invested
$8.4
Value
$35.66
PnL
+$26.11
Record
48%
1996-2164 (4160)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
90.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.