Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (60%). 3 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-11-03?
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 40¢ · $549 held · ends Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 100%
$549.35
$105.22
37.5¢ → 40.5¢
+8% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 40%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 60%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888CTR | Noavg 37.8¢ | $1.1K | $351.69 | +$86.89 | 58% 37579-27344 (64923) |
P1 P1kasoCTR | Noavg 36.3¢ | $149.61 | $167.02 | +$17.42 | 64% 717-397 (1114) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Noavg 40¢ | $17.86 | $30.64 | +$0.91 | 55% 2163-1776 (3939) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
40.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.