FC Barcelona vs. Feyenoord Rotterdam: O/U 5.5
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (100%) · Under at 56¢ · $6K held · ended Sep 9
⚖️
Neutral
Under
4
Under 100%
$6.2K
$-2.4K
18.4¢ → 55.5¢
+202% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 56%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PE Peupo012 | Underavg 1.2¢ | $202.15 | $5.0K | -$108.75 | 34% 430-834 (1264) |
0X 0xbbf379252411511ADAb081F016Dc991aA6bbAA3A-1768154730738 | Underavg 57.9¢ | $1,000 | $957.79 | -$1,000 | 46% 584-679 (1263) |
DA darkumbreon99 | Underavg 66.7¢ | $312.2 | $259.66 | -$312.19 | 62% 505-312 (817) |
0X 0x8191c793fd7edbadf0fae651f55c1da3b638da72 | Underavg 54¢ | $956.47 | — | -$956.47 | 72% 2194-842 (3036) |
Invested
$202.15
Value
$5.0K
PnL
-$108.75
Record
34%
430-834 (1264)
Invested
$1,000
Value
$957.79
PnL
-$1,000
Record
46%
584-679 (1263)
Invested
$312.2
Value
$259.66
PnL
-$312.19
Record
62%
505-312 (817)
Invested
$956.47
Value
—
PnL
-$956.47
Record
72%
2194-842 (3036)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.