Will Boluspor win on 2026-10-14?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 80¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 14

Yes21¢No79¢Ended Wed, Oct 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$2.4K

Combined PnL

$409.12

Smart Money Entry

64.9¢ → 79.5¢

+22% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 80%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes21%

No80%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares2,799

Combined PnL+$444.86

Yes2 traders

Total Value$55.21

Total Shares269

Combined PnL-$35.75

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Late

257h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Noavg 60.5¢	$1.2K	$1.6K	+$397.09	55% 43123-35478 (78601)
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllow	Noavg 85¢	$420.42	$393.22	-$27.2	55% 3765-3123 (6888)
RE retarb	Noavg 61.1¢	$259.78	$323.56	+$74.98	50% 2991-2951 (5942)
FI FinalOrderCTR<$100	Yesavg 34¢	$50	$30.15	-$19.85	46% 193-231 (424)
BE BetzikoCTR<$100	Yesavg 33.5¢	$40.96	$25.06	-$15.9	55% 4832-4025 (8857)

RN1

Invested

$1,221.82

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$397.09

Record

55%

43123-35478 (78601)

WeBuyHighWeSelllow

Invested

$420.42

Value

$393.22

PnL

-$27.2

Record

55%

3765-3123 (6888)

retarb

Invested

$259.78

Value

$323.56

PnL

+$74.98

Record

50%

2991-2951 (5942)

FinalOrderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$50

Value

$30.15

PnL

-$19.85

Record

46%

193-231 (424)

BetzikoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$40.96

Value

$25.06

PnL

-$15.9

Record

55%

4832-4025 (8857)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 80%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Late

257h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance81.3%

79.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$23.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

123.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.