Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (52%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will Kayserispor win on 2026-10-25?
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 49¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 57%
1 arb excluded
$3.0K
$-1.0K
70.8¢ → 48.5¢
-31% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 49%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 52%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1CTR | Noavg 76.4¢ | $2.8K | $1.7K | $-1.1K | 55% 43485-35791 (79276) |
OM omnibus-076daa | Yesavg 53.7¢ | $551.88 | $559.6 | +$7.73 | 59% 13855-9624 (23479) |
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100 | Noavg 50.6¢ | $294.69 | $299.68 | +$4.99 | 68% 31050-14947 (45997) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 46.7¢ | $130.59 | $155.24 | +$24.65 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 50.6¢ | $164.11 | $144.44 | -$19.67 | |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Noavg 44.7¢ | $254.05 | $267.35 | +$13.31 | 52% 16262-14802 (31064) |
 us391CTR | Noavg 45¢ | $102.55 | $168.64 | +$72.93 | 52% 1353-1269 (2622) |
SP spyGoodLuck77<$100 | Yesavg 21.7¢ | $19.92 | $14.67 | -$5.25 | 63% 1388-820 (2208) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Noavg 68.4¢ | $10.03 | $7.23 | -$2.8 | 58% 1451-1066 (2517) |
BE Betziko<$100 | Yesavg 53¢ | $2.65 | $1 | -$1.65 | 55% 4838-4027 (8865) |
RN1CTRInvested
$2,810.58
Value
$1.7K
PnL
$-1.1K
Record
55%
43485-35791 (79276)
Invested
$551.88
Value
$559.6
PnL
+$7.73
Record
59%
13855-9624 (23479)
Invested
$294.69
Value
$299.68
PnL
+$4.99
Record
68%
31050-14947 (45997)
Both legs:
Invested
$254.05
Value
$267.35
PnL
+$13.31
Record
52%
16262-14802 (31064)
us391CTRInvested
$102.55
Value
$168.64
PnL
+$72.93
Record
52%
1353-1269 (2622)
Invested
$19.92
Value
$14.67
PnL
-$5.25
Record
63%
1388-820 (2208)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$10.03
Value
$7.23
PnL
-$2.8
Record
58%
1451-1066 (2517)
Invested
$2.65
Value
$1
PnL
-$1.65
Record
55%
4838-4027 (8865)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.