Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (81%). 5 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Mardin 1969 Spor win on 2026-10-26?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 19¢ · $145 held · ended Oct 26
⚠️
Avoid
No
7
No 71%
$145.27
$1.53
Research grade
AvoidNo at 19%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 81%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1CTR<$100 | Noavg 28.4¢ | $52.51 | $59.99 | +$7.49 | 54% 51866-43791 (95657) |
 poshposh<$100 | Yesavg 63¢ | $37.79 | $39.88 | +$2.09 | 61% 8644-5579 (14223) |
GA GamblingOdyssey<$100 | Yesavg 61¢ | $18.3 | $18.15 | -$0.15 | 51% 816-778 (1594) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Noavg 42¢ | $14.07 | $13.23 | -$0.84 | 60% 39862-26488 (66350) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Noavg 38.6¢ | $16.8 | $9.64 | -$7.16 | 51% 21869-21276 (43145) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Noavg 41¢ | $2.37 | $2.4 | +$0.03 | 55% 2163-1776 (3939) |
BE BetzikoCTR<$100 | Noavg 38¢ | $1.9 | $1.98 | +$0.08 | 54% 5749-4838 (10587) |
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$52.51
Value
$59.99
PnL
+$7.49
Record
54%
51866-43791 (95657)
poshposh<$100Invested
$37.79
Value
$39.88
PnL
+$2.09
Record
61%
8644-5579 (14223)
Invested
$18.3
Value
$18.15
PnL
-$0.15
Record
51%
816-778 (1594)
Invested
$14.07
Value
$13.23
PnL
-$0.84
Record
60%
39862-26488 (66350)
Invested
$16.8
Value
$9.64
PnL
-$7.16
Record
51%
21869-21276 (43145)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$2.37
Value
$2.4
PnL
+$0.03
Record
55%
2163-1776 (3939)
Invested
$1.9
Value
$1.98
PnL
+$0.08
Record
54%
5749-4838 (10587)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
19.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.