Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Batman Petrolspor vs. Esenler Erokspor: O/U 1.5
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (83%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $803 held · ended Oct 25
⚠️
Avoid
Under
6
Under 83%
$803.48
$49.79
45.3¢ → 0.1¢
-100% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LO looppau | Overavg 99.9¢ | $299.7 | $299.85 | +$0.15 | 99% 6784-36 (6820) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Underavg 49.9¢ | $260.62 | $266.53 | +$5.92 | 52% 16262-14802 (31064) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Underavg 38.2¢ | $135.24 | $170.24 | +$35 | 68% 31050-14947 (45997) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Underavg 48.2¢ | $52.1 | $55.13 | +$3.03 | 50% 8797-8727 (17524) |
BA BayupatiCTR<$100 | Underavg 24¢ | $3.96 | $8.42 | +$4.46 | 50% 160-157 (317) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Underavg 32¢ | $2.08 | $3.32 | +$1.23 | 58% 1451-1066 (2517) |
Invested
$299.7
Value
$299.85
PnL
+$0.15
Record
99%
6784-36 (6820)
Invested
$260.62
Value
$266.53
PnL
+$5.92
Record
52%
16262-14802 (31064)
Invested
$135.24
Value
$170.24
PnL
+$35
Record
68%
31050-14947 (45997)
Invested
$52.1
Value
$55.13
PnL
+$3.03
Record
50%
8797-8727 (17524)
Invested
$3.96
Value
$8.42
PnL
+$4.46
Record
50%
160-157 (317)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$2.08
Value
$3.32
PnL
+$1.23
Record
58%
1451-1066 (2517)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.