Will Antalyaspor win on 2026-10-25?

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 54¢ · $55 held · ended Oct 25

Yes54¢No46¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 75%

Total Value

$55.44

Combined PnL

-$0.93

Research grade

NeutralYes at 54%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes54%

No46%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$51.3

Total Shares95

Combined PnL+$3.3

No1 trader

Total Value$4.14

Total Shares9

Combined PnL-$4.23

Yes — 75%No — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388<$100	Yesavg 54¢	$21.6	$21.6	-$0	55% 1302-1044 (2346)
tradecraft<$100	Yesavg 35¢	$14	$21.6	+$7.6	52% 5509-5116 (10625)
BE Betziko<$100	Yesavg 50.7¢	$7.6	$8.1	-$4.3	55% 4845-4030 (8875)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Noavg 93¢	$8.37	$4.14	-$4.23	58% 1472-1088 (2560)

VD721lsj4938Dk388<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.6

Value

$21.6

PnL

-$0

Record

55%

1302-1044 (2346)

tradecraft<$100

Yes

Invested

$14

Value

$21.6

PnL

+$7.6

Record

52%

5509-5116 (10625)

Betziko<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.6

Value

$8.1

PnL

-$4.3

Record

55%

4845-4030 (8875)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Invested

$8.37

Value

$4.14

PnL

-$4.23

Record

58%

1472-1088 (2560)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 54%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.2%

54.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$77.82

Max Loss

-$100.00

177.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.