Will Trabzonspor win on 2026-10-26?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 51¢ · $718 held · ends Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
1 arb excluded
$718.14
$14.3
50¢ → 50.5¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 51%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Mature
20h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CA Cannae | Noavg 50¢ | $300.24 | $306.1 | +$3 | 53% 13585-12026 (25611) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 49.9¢ | $309.92 | $153 | +$6.57 | 58% 31731-22975 (54706) |
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388CTR | Yesavg 48¢ | $148.55 | $151.64 | +$4.64 | 55% 1303-1046 (2349) |
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100 | Noavg 50¢ | $97.55 | $99.06 | +$1.51 | 54% 13824-11602 (25426) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 50¢ | $75.5 | $77.01 | +$1.51 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 49¢ | $22.05 | $22.05 | +$0 | |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 50¢ | $8.17 | $8.33 | +$0.08 | 57% 1506-1114 (2620) |
Invested
$300.24
Value
$306.1
PnL
+$3
Record
53%
13585-12026 (25611)
VeryLucky888Invested
$309.92
Value
$153
PnL
+$6.57
Record
58%
31731-22975 (54706)
Invested
$148.55
Value
$151.64
PnL
+$4.64
Record
55%
1303-1046 (2349)
Invested
$97.55
Value
$99.06
PnL
+$1.51
Record
54%
13824-11602 (25426)
Both legs:
HRTrading<$100Invested
$8.17
Value
$8.33
PnL
+$0.08
Record
57%
1506-1114 (2620)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.