Çaykur Rizespor vs. Trabzonspor: O/U 6.5

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 57¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 26

Over43¢Under57¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.5K

Combined PnL

-$615.37

Smart Money Entry

91.9¢ → 56.7¢

-38% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 57%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 6 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over43%

Under57%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$3.5K

Total Shares4,698

Combined PnL-$853.81

Over2 traders

Total Value$844.76

Total Shares5,236

Combined PnL+$238.44

Under — 67%Over — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 91.9¢	$4.2K	$3.4K	-$813.56	60% 39862-26488 (66350)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Overavg 19.7¢	$463.71	$492.33	+$28.62	51% 21869-21276 (43145)
RN1CTR	Overavg 4.8¢	$142.61	$352.43	+$209.82	54% 51866-43791 (95657)
LU LuckyLooARB<$100	Underavg 91.7¢	$125.28	$219.55	+$94.27	50% 10912-11060 (21972)
└ Over leg	Overavg 4.7¢	$35.77	$140.05	+$104.28
└ Under leg	Underavg 91.7¢	$89.51	$79.5	-$10.01
FO foooool<$100	Underavg 93.2¢	$61.95	$57	-$4.95	50% 9550-9470 (19020)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 96¢	$75.84	$40.29	-$35.55	56% 24547-18914 (43461)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Underavg 82.4¢	$31.76	$32.01	+$0.25	50% 9393-9316 (18709)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$4,167.74

Value

$3.4K

PnL

-$813.56

Record

60%

39862-26488 (66350)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Over

Invested

$463.71

Value

$492.33

PnL

+$28.62

Record

51%

21869-21276 (43145)

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$142.61

Value

$352.43

PnL

+$209.82

Record

54%

51866-43791 (95657)

LuckyLooARB<$100

Under

Invested

$125.28

Value

$219.55

PnL

+$94.27

Record

50%

10912-11060 (21972)

Both legs:

Over$35.774.7¢+$104.28

Under$89.5191.7¢-$10.01

foooool<$100

Under

Invested

$61.95

Value

$57

PnL

-$4.95

Record

50%

9550-9470 (19020)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$75.84

Value

$40.29

PnL

-$35.55

Record

56%

24547-18914 (43461)

SnakeBall<$100

Under

Invested

$31.76

Value

$32.01

PnL

+$0.25

Record

50%

9393-9316 (18709)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 57%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 6 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.9%

56.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$69.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

169.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.