Çaykur Rizespor vs. Trabzonspor: O/U 4.5

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Over (64%) · Over at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 26

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 64%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.3K

Combined PnL

-$64.13

Smart Money Entry

65.3¢ → 100¢

+53% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 11 top traders (64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over7 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares2,055

Combined PnL-$65.57

Under4 traders

Total Value$115.6

Total Shares151

Combined PnL+$1.44

Over — 64%Under — 36%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Overavg 72.1¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	-$104.84	51% 21869-21276 (43145)
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Underavg 19.2¢	$337.57	$517.39	+$179.82	60% 39862-26488 (66350)
└ Under leg	Underavg 19.2¢	$228.71	$267.9	+$39.19
└ Over leg	Overavg 33.8¢	$108.86	$249.49	+$140.63
FO foooool	Overavg 36.8¢	$153	$208.57	+$55.57	50% 9550-9470 (19020)
RO Rocky31	Overavg 60¢	$181.73	$165.08	-$16.66	73% 1357-513 (1870)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Underavg 77.3¢	$69.01	$68.7	+$0.14	56% 6695-5367 (12062)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Underavg 77¢	$41.58	$41.58	+$0	56% 24547-18914 (43461)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Overavg 83¢	$23.24	$23.38	+$0.14	50% 10912-11060 (21972)
RO Rocko33<$100	Overavg 50¢	$20	$17	-$3	64% 913-510 (1423)
HRTrading<$100	Overavg 21.5¢	$3.01	$6.21	+$3.2	55% 2163-1776 (3939)
RN1CTR<$100	Underavg 58¢	$3.76	$5.05	+$1.3	54% 51866-43791 (95657)
VeryLucky888<$100	Overavg 21¢	$0.51	$0.53	+$0.02	58% 37579-27344 (64923)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Underavg 21¢	$0.27	$0.27	+$0.01	50% 9393-9316 (18709)

GoalLineGhost

Over

Invested

$1,357.87

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$104.84

Record

51%

21869-21276 (43145)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Under

Invested

$337.57

Value

$517.39

PnL

+$179.82

Record

60%

39862-26488 (66350)

Both legs:

Under$228.7119.2¢+$39.19

Over$108.8633.8¢+$140.63

foooool

Over

Invested

$153

Value

$208.57

PnL

+$55.57

Record

50%

9550-9470 (19020)

Rocky31

Over

Invested

$181.73

Value

$165.08

PnL

-$16.66

Record

73%

1357-513 (1870)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$69.01

Value

$68.7

PnL

+$0.14

Record

56%

6695-5367 (12062)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$41.58

Value

$41.58

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

24547-18914 (43461)

LuckyLoo<$100

Over

Invested

$23.24

Value

$23.38

PnL

+$0.14

Record

50%

10912-11060 (21972)

Rocko33<$100

Over

Invested

$20

Value

$17

PnL

-$3

Record

64%

913-510 (1423)

HRTrading<$100

Over

Invested

$3.01

Value

$6.21

PnL

+$3.2

Record

55%

2163-1776 (3939)

RN1CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.76

Value

$5.05

PnL

+$1.3

Record

54%

51866-43791 (95657)

VeryLucky888<$100

Over

Invested

$0.51

Value

$0.53

PnL

+$0.02

Record

58%

37579-27344 (64923)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.27

Value

$0.27

PnL

+$0.01

Record

50%

9393-9316 (18709)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 11 top traders (64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.