Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 5 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Çaykur Rizespor vs. Trabzonspor: O/U 3.5
5 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Under (42%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 26
⚠️
Avoid
Under
12
Under 42%
$2.2K
$217.25
44¢ → 0.1¢
-100% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 12 top traders (42%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Underavg 37.6¢ | $513.73 | $580.09 | +$66.36 | 51% 21869-21276 (43145) |
UP UpTheBlues | Overavg 42.2¢ | $329.91 | $436.67 | +$106.77 | 60% 39862-26488 (66350) |
 RN1CTR | Underavg 47.6¢ | $330.89 | $410.4 | +$79.51 | 54% 51866-43791 (95657) |
 ComingBackCTR | Underavg 60¢ | $300 | $305 | +$5 | 62% 3795-2300 (6095) |
LO looppau | Overavg 99.9¢ | $299.7 | $298.5 | -$1.2 | 99% 9169-41 (9210) |
FO foooool | Overavg 55¢ | $100.29 | $71.19 | -$29.1 | 50% 9550-9470 (19020) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Overavg 39¢ | $55.38 | $56.2 | +$0.83 | 58% 37579-27344 (64923) |
RO Rocko33<$100 | Overavg 93¢ | $29.44 | $26.75 | -$2.69 | 64% 913-510 (1423) |
LA LaarsY<$100 | Overavg 51¢ | $16.13 | $12.34 | -$3.8 | 50% 3289-3246 (6535) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Overavg 58¢ | $10.22 | $10.31 | +$0.09 | 50% 10912-11060 (21972) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Underavg 41¢ | $1.23 | $1.28 | +$0.04 | 55% 2163-1776 (3939) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Underavg 11.7¢ | $5 | $0.43 | -$4.57 | 61% 8644-5579 (14223) |
Invested
$513.73
Value
$580.09
PnL
+$66.36
Record
51%
21869-21276 (43145)
Invested
$329.91
Value
$436.67
PnL
+$106.77
Record
60%
39862-26488 (66350)
RN1CTRInvested
$330.89
Value
$410.4
PnL
+$79.51
Record
54%
51866-43791 (95657)
ComingBackCTRInvested
$300
Value
$305
PnL
+$5
Record
62%
3795-2300 (6095)
Invested
$299.7
Value
$298.5
PnL
-$1.2
Record
99%
9169-41 (9210)
Invested
$100.29
Value
$71.19
PnL
-$29.1
Record
50%
9550-9470 (19020)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$55.38
Value
$56.2
PnL
+$0.83
Record
58%
37579-27344 (64923)
Invested
$29.44
Value
$26.75
PnL
-$2.69
Record
64%
913-510 (1423)
Invested
$16.13
Value
$12.34
PnL
-$3.8
Record
50%
3289-3246 (6535)
Invested
$10.22
Value
$10.31
PnL
+$0.09
Record
50%
10912-11060 (21972)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$1.23
Value
$1.28
PnL
+$0.04
Record
55%
2163-1776 (3939)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$5
Value
$0.43
PnL
-$4.57
Record
61%
8644-5579 (14223)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.