Çaykur Rizespor vs. Trabzonspor: O/U 2.5
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Over (100%) · Over at 62¢ · $317 held · ends Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
Over
3
Over 100%
$316.92
-$1.87
62.6¢ → 62¢
-1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 62%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Overavg 63¢ | $185.85 | $182.9 | -$2.95 | 60% 39852-26467 (66319) |
 0xheavy888 | Overavg 62¢ | $124 | $124 | +$1 | 56% 6694-5364 (12058) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Overavg 62¢ | $10.02 | $10.02 | +$0.08 | 57% 24505-18852 (43357) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
62.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.